VO-BB - 20 YEARS OLD!

[gkarnes]

Well-
I haven't been ordering lines for about three years. In tech that is a lifetime. I would still try to find out who is doing the local loop. You will get a lot more accurate answers.

ISDN stands for Integrated Services Digital Network BTW. It is a digital circuit. Not analog.

[Frank F]

It's digital on analog phone lines, to be precise. The same way your 56k modem provides digital links via the analog phone line. That is why ISDN has limited bandwidth.

FF
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Be thankful for the bad things in life. They opened your eyes to the good things you weren't paying attention to before. email: thevoice@usa.com

[Jeff McNeal]

[Frank F]

Jeff, et al.

I think you are on target, but do not know the vernacular.

[Jeff McNeal]

Interesting and informative reply, Frank. Thank you. So are you suggesting that within five years, telcos are going to eliminate running new copper wires to new construction developments, or that they are going to abandon the current infrastructure of copper to existing clients? I can see the former, but the latter doesn't make as much sense to me. Do you really believe that FIOS will be available everywhere that copper is now in just five years? Personally, I would hate to have to rely on the Internet for two-way, real time communications on a regular basis, though with FIOS, my service has been uninterrupted so far, so I suppose that's a good sign.

I guess I'll have to just cross that bridge when I come to it. By that time, I'll have gotten my money out of my ISDN codec and if I no longer need it or I can no longer use it because it's been replaced with a new standard, then that's fine, too. Interesting stuff.

[Frank F]

You are right, the former. Jeff wrote: "...telcos are going to eliminate running new copper wires to new construction developments..."

The total elimination of copper will take approximately 10 years according to the telco industry.

On the other hand - as the infrastructure grows, new developments in technology (such as iSpeek) will begin to fill in the (ISDN) gap which will be left wide open by the telcos. Watch for great new developments in the two-way, real-time, high-quality audio game shortly.

Frank F
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Be thankful for the bad things in life. They opened your eyes to the good things you weren't paying attention to before. email: thevoice@usa.com

[Jeff McNeal]

Yes, I will be watching, from a comfortable distance.

I'm sorry, Frank, I know you've got a vested interest in this discussion whereas I do not. But I can't help it. I'm a natural born skeptic. I could have been born in Missouri.

As long as the existing infrastructure is maintained, I don't see ISDN going anywhere, anytime soon. And I also don't see the telcos rolling over and abandoning a very profitable income stream, leaving it "wide open", either. Maybe they'll be forced into obsolescence as you say. Maybe not. Whether any of this discussion becomes relevent or merely academic in our personal time frames, however, is another matter entirely.

But again, I really don't have a horse in this race. I wish yours well, though. Not sure that I'd bet on it, but I wish it well. Thanks for the discussion.

[Frank F]

Not a problem, that is what the VO-BB is all about. Howver, you might want to consider that less than 1/2 of 1% of billing is for ISDN in the United States.

Maintaince of the service is dwindling to almost non-existant. Maintaining the infrastructure of copper wire; is becoming a high cost factor for telco's, as of 2006 maintaince has incraesed in cost by 125%. Copper prices have increased nearly 90% in the past six months as well. How long do you think copper will remain a viable product for CLEC's?

There is a bunch of factors which control the products we use every day. COGS or Cost of Goods Sold is one of the biggest factors involved. Another factor in the change for telco's is VOIP. Within the next year and a half, the VOIP penetration into the normal POTS line indsurty will be at 50%. Do you think it wise for a company to stay with "old" technology"? I know for a fact, the Telco's do not.

Good luck.

Frank F
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Be thankful for the bad things in life. They opened your eyes to the good things you weren't paying attention to before. email: thevoice@usa.com

[Jeff McNeal]

Facts and conjecture make for strange bedfellows, Frank. I seem to see a fair amount of both in your comments. Whether or not Telcos maintain copper is something that I don't think either of us really know at this point. If you've seen a press release detailing the facts that Verizon and AT&T are abandoning their copper infrastructure or have no plans to maintain copper dependent services, please share it. I'd like as much advance notice as possible, 5-10 years notice would be pretty good. But again, show me the link so I can confirm your claims with real fact.

This much we know with certainty. Copper is in the ground, in place, and isn't going to be removed. You seem to be speculating that Telcos will abandon the ISDN market at some point in the near future, opening the market to other products like yours. I on the other hand, believe that they will find a way to bridge the gap between copper and FIOS, and retain their ISDN accounts or otherwise find a viable way to retain that income, no matter how insignificant you may feel that it is. If you find it worthy enough to go after with your product, well, just maybe the Telcos will want sweep up the crumbs that fall off the table, after all.

But all this speculation and conjecture is really academic at this point, isn't it? Seems that way to me, at least.

[Frank F]

Through diligent research and zero speculation is how these conclusions have been delineated.

I cannot tell you how I have arrived at the conclusions, (due to some inside information) however, the good news is that FIOS brings myriads of opportunities for the VO world and the video market. Fiber Optic lines reduce infrastructure costs and allow greater bandwidth. The previous increases the bottom line.

The infrastructure "in ground" (copper wire) for telcos is becoming dated, unreliable, and is associated with higher than anticipated maintainance costs. With less than 1% total income generated from ISDN; what would you, as a businessman, do? Would you continue to support an ever increasing cost base? Would you support an ever decreasing customer base? Would you continue to throw money toward a losing product just becasue it has a few customers who have supported it for years?

Ask yourself "why are the major producers of ISDN codecs creating IP products"? Ask yourself "why the cost of ISDN will likely double this year"? The times they are changing, there is a small yet visable Window Of Opportunity for my product and other similar products. Within three to five years you will see the first of the FIOS related audio "boxes" designed for the future. Within 10 years even my style of codec will be oblselete unless I have already adapted to the future. This is a given.

Since you seem to hail from Missouri, the "Show Me" State; my comment to you would be "keep your investment" - for now. Pay attention to where the industry is headed (both Telco and the Audio Codec industries), and further prepare yourself to play "catch-up"; rather than roll with the flow.

Did you buy Beta video recorders before they will considered passe' with the production of VHS? What did you think when you first heard of non-linear editing and how it would replace analog tape? Manufacturers still make analog tape. and similar to ISDN - analog tape still works; but are you using analog tape in your studio?

Copper wires will be maintained as long as there is a use for them by the telcos,, not the customers. Fiber Optic will replace 75% of copper wire by 2010, according to the telco industry. Ask your CLEC if they are changing to FIOS and when it will be implemented completely. The communications industry as it is known today is regulated by the FCC, they mandated the change in a December 1995 ruling. There are no amendments to this directive at present.

Good luck with your choices.

Frank F
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Be thankful for the bad things in life. They opened your eyes to the good things you weren't paying attention to before. email: thevoice@usa.com

[Jeff McNeal]

I'm just waiting for the technology that will allow me to "will" my performance to a remote studio, using nothing but telepathy. No microphones or anything. Wake me up when that happens.

BTW, I never bought into Beta; and when I first saw non-linear editing, I almost genuflected right there on the spot. No more razor blades, no more grease pencil, no more splicing tape. Hallelujah!!!

I'm not too worried about playing catch up, Frank. I just don't want to be one of the pioneers of any new technology and prefer to wait until the market dictates the direction. Pioneers are the guys that get the arrows through their hats. Or become billionaires, I guess. Here's to hoping that you'll be one of the latter. Best of luck to you in your business venture.

[Frank F]

Thank you Jeff.

[Jeff McNeal]

[kgenus]

According to certain individuals in the "Telecom Industry," FiOS is the great savior they have awaited for years. It will save everything. It will replace everything. The reality - it will cause stocks to rise from the ashes like the fabled Phoenix. This is undoubtedly the true masiah for these hopeful stock holders.

Even though the Copper Era has come to an end the reality is that copper lines and their maintenance will be around for quite some time. This was part of the FCC mandate delivered in 1995. This has nothing to do with the telcos at large and everything to do with "administration" requirements the United States requires. It is a backup system for a non-FiOS primary system.

Furthermore, that mandate had several items in small print that defined what exactly would be considered FiOS. If you live in a rural area of the country, as many do, you may receive a radio shot that meets the bandwidth requirements for FiOS as part of your FiOS offering, which of course is in the fine print. Whatever the case, all you know is that you have FiOS.

I will not say I'm a front runner for any specific technological solution available, I'm far from an uneducated dullard and when it comes to a keyboard and cpu, like many of you, been there, programmed that, got the t-shirt.

The only product I've used to date with great success has been the only product currently available, Source-Connect. "It's da isht!" It paid for itself the first week I bought it and the studios I work directly with have made the investment. These products may be in their infancy, however, many are using them with the flexibility with which they were designed and Source-Connect get spoken of in many circles.

But ... you do the math....

Kevin
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Genus

[Pam]

Not to be a stinker, but does any of this discussion help Dierdre with her quest in finding Verizon service in LA?
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Pam Tierney
www.pamtierneyvo.com
imdb profile http://imdb.com/name/nm1941932/

Now what did I come in here for?