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Are Robots Taking Over? May 2018 Update
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Bruce
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Joined: 06 Jun 2005
Posts: 7921
Location: Portland, OR

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing is when you take away all or mostly all of the physical labor:

Truck drivers, pizza makers, auto assemblers, disc jockeys, taxi drivers, bakers, airport skycaps, receptionists, warehouse stock pickers and drivers, members of the military, grocery clerks, voiceoverists, to name a few (and these are all jobs that have been partially taken over by AI) ...

What do we all do? We can't all be sitting on our asses and writing code. I'm sure there will be code to write but not that much. Following this scenario we the people won't be necessary anymore. This business of "the singularity" where our minds and machines are one does not sound that enticing for us flesh and blood humans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

I've seen serious discussions of some day paying the unemployed/unemployable a "salary" for just existing. That's not a life.

B
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Mike Harrison
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Joined: 03 Nov 2007
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Location: Equidistant from New York City and Philadelphia, along the NJ Shore

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I completely agree with Bruce. I've always hated the notion of doing things simply because we have the ability to; in this case, AI / robots designed to take over tasks performed by people. Of course, creating a robot to perform tasks that would jeopardize a person's safety or life is GOOD, but replacing a person with technology just because it can be done is crazy. People (living things with feelings and the need to feel significant) REQUIRE more than a mere existence.
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Mike
Male Voice Over Talent
I have taken leave of my sensors.

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Tim Jackson



Joined: 21 Nov 2017
Posts: 23
Location: Salt Lake City, UT

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bruce,

I agree that getting paid to sit around would not be a life. One of the points I was trying to make earlier was that we have no idea of what we will be doing tomorrow, just as the people of yesterday could not have imagined what humans do today.

On the other hand, in the 50's, when humans were all dreaming of being Jetsons someday, it seemed like low entry barrier jobs would be gone. They aren't today and I am sure they won't be tomorrow. They may look different than what people do today.

A lot of the jobs you list aren't exactly the same as they were 50 years ago or even 20 years ago but people still have jobs. If someone says, "This exact thing I am doing now is the only thing I will ever do and I will never change.", they may be unemployable in the future. But those who are willing to adapt will still be employed.
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todd ellis
A Zillion


Joined: 02 Jan 2007
Posts: 10479
Location: little egypt

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

today: 3.9% unemployment in the USA

2023: apple invents iEveryfrigginEVERYthing

2031: 39.6% unemployment worldwide 60.4% work either for the one-world government or Apple (which is REALLY the same thing)

2037: mandatory "retirement" at 46 years of age

2041: death panels initiated

2050: midway through Finn Wolfhard's 2nd term as northern hemisphere overlord, Skynet becomes self aware.

... and we all know what happens from there.
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Bruce
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Joined: 06 Jun 2005
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Location: Portland, OR

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, we've seen the movies.

Future employment opportunities: revolutionaries living underground


B
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Dan-O
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Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 1636

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm a geek and I read the whole thing. Sounds good to me:

https://medium.com/@RickWebb/the-economics-of-star-trek-29bab88d50
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Bruce
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PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2018 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I got a little lost in the weeds going through that, but it reminded me of one of my regular thoughts watching Star Trek movies: How can they afford to build dozens of those giant, multi-trillion dollar (in today's $) space ships when we can barely fantasize so far about sending a few people to Mars or back to the Moon? They must live in an economy where money really is no object and they can build whatever they want.

What? It's science fiction you say? Hmmm.


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Bish
3.5 kHz


Joined: 22 Nov 2009
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Location: Lost in the cultural wasteland of Long Island

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 5:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is teetering on the edge of becoming an overtly political thread. I honestly believe that we (as a species) can do anything we choose to do if we unite in a common goal. The problem is that we have actively chosen to ignore that path. We violently (and expensively) revel in the Balkanization (both geographic and cultural) of the planet and individual greed. Resources are destroyed for the betterment of a small percentage with nary a thought for repercussions. The Star Trek premise is that this happened, got so bad that civilization crumbled, and that we managed to recover with a hard-learned lesson.

So... it has to get worse before it gets better? Crap.
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Bish a.k.a. Bish
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I will not feed the trolls... I will not feed the trolls... I will not feed the trolls... I will not feed the trolls.
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Philip Banks
Je Ne Sais Quoi


Joined: 20 Jun 2005
Posts: 11046
Location: Portgordon, Scotland

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We are genetically programmed to survive. Some do not have that gene at all or have its weaker brother, Douglas. Solution? Out source survival to someone who writes code because they believe there is an app for everything. There isn't.

In context. The reason some of us are able to make a living is our survival gene and above all else our humanity. If you are not able to take someone by the hand, wrap your arms around a troubled soul, make someone laugh, cry, get angry, inspire, motivate or simply bring a story full of adventure and sunshine into their lives QUIT. Do it now, our world, the world of overs we call voice has no use for you.
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FinMac
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Joined: 14 Jan 2013
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Location: In a really cool place...Finland!

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 10:25 pm    Post subject: The Handwriting is on the wall Reply with quote

Dayo wrote:
Fear not. People will always crave authenticity. Witness the rise of craft breweries, artisan bakers etc. Ain’t a robot been invented yet that can raise a eyebrow, add a sly smile, or put a metaphorical arm round your shoulder...


Back in the early 80’s I worked with a computer programmer on several computer chess programs. At that time I was one of the top 50 active chess players in L.A.

My boss and I had a running argument about who would be better, humans or computers. Because there is a lot of intuition involved in chess I always said that humans would be better.

Then in 1996 the world Chess Champion lost a match against a computer. It was a sad day for us humans.

Recently Google developed a program called Alpha Zero. It taught itself to play chess in two hours. Then it played a 100 game match against the defending world chess computer champion Stockfish.

At the end of the 100 game match Alpha Zero had won 28 games, and 72 games were drawn. Not a singlle lost game for Alpha Zero.

This is scary!

If the google game wants to tackle TTS where it really sounds like a human the time is coming soon.

Sorry to rain on everyone’s parade, but the handwriting is on the wall.
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Philip Banks
Je Ne Sais Quoi


Joined: 20 Jun 2005
Posts: 11046
Location: Portgordon, Scotland

PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do not confuse utility with humanity as it's a bit like confusing love with lust.

A computer could diagnose something. Your doctor will notice something about your manner.

A robot could clean your windows whereas your window cleaner will ask you about your elderly neighbour who still has her curtains closed at 3pm.

Running logic and recognition software a robot could detect the most beautiful girl in the room while the ugliest man in the room sees she is lonely and simply wants to be loved then does something about it.

If you know where you are you are never lost. If you know you are valued you will never be replaced by a robot, I am not Andrew Martin. I can play Chess but don't. For some reason people hire me for me and there's no code for that.
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Mike Harrison
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Joined: 03 Nov 2007
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Location: Equidistant from New York City and Philadelphia, along the NJ Shore

PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2018 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For a momentary twist, here's a short story in which humans behaved rather robotically.

It was a cold, rainy day in December 2007 when I drove my new car off the dealer's lot and headed home. After a few minutes, when the windows began fogging up, I turned on the defogger. It made things much worse, revealing streaks, swirls and smears I couldn't see clearly through.

I turned around and went back to the dealership and asked why the windows were all streaked, swirled and smeared. "Oh, that must've happened when they cleaned the windows." Stunned, I asked, "Why is it necessary to clean the inside surfaces of the windows of a brand new car... window surfaces which, up until that time, had never been touched by anyone?" Confused

My question obviously stumped them.

I've had several experiences where, while falling all over themselves in an attempt to please, businesses often do silly things without thinking first.
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Mike
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Robert D. M.
Contributor


Joined: 08 May 2008
Posts: 29

PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some VO pros in Europe were quite worried by the negative prospects referenced in these articles. Wavenet and Lyrebird seems to be the industry leaders and a look at their trajectories might be helpful:

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/24/15406882/ai-voice-synthesis-copy-human-speech-lyrebird

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/04/24/voice_stealing_lyrebird/

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/25/lyrebird-is-a-voice-mimic-for-the-fake-news-era/
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Philip Banks
Je Ne Sais Quoi


Joined: 20 Jun 2005
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Location: Portgordon, Scotland

PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The good news. Cloth ears is not a medical condition, stupidity is not contagious and most IT "solutions" designers believe Humanity is an app.

If you are among those who believe IT virtual voices are a threat to what we do then get out now because you should never has "got in" in the first place.

Should you enjoy pointless, career neutral debates then ask to be on a WoVo rate panel.
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